Analysis of the Soybean-to-Corn Price Ratio and its Impact on Farmers' Planting Decision-Making in Indiana

In Indiana agricultural land is used mostly for corn and soybean harvesting. Rotated corn is a common practice, but in recent years, essentially due to the "ethanol boom" and increased profitability of corn production, many farmers have switched to continuous corn. Corn price increase affects the soybean-to-corn (STC) ratio, however, it is hypothesized that over time market effects will be felt, and return the ratio to its stable range. The threshold autoregressive model is used to analyze the monthly time series of STC ratio in Indiana. Results suggest that exogenous shocks will not have permanent effect on the STC price ratio, but will require, however, a reasonably long time to die out.Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management,

The Effect of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on U.S. Corn Production and Downside Risk

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections imply anomalous weather conditions around the globe, causing yield shortages, price changes, and even civil unrests. Extreme ENSO events may cause catastrophic damages to crop yields, thus amplifying downside risk for producers. This study presents a framework for quantifying the effects of climate on crop yield distributions. An empirical application provides estimates of the effect that ENSO events have on the means of U.S. county-level corn yield distributions, as well as the probabilities of catastrophic crop loss. Our findings demonstrate that ENSO events strongly influence these probabilities systematically over large production regions, which has important implications for research and policy analysis in the production, risk management, climate change, and civil unrest literatures.Climate, El Nino Southern Oscillation, Maximum Entropy, Risk Management, Yield Distribution, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Production Economics,

Targeting Consumers by Store - The Basis of Increased Sales with Less Advertising

Conditional Logit approach was used to analyze the Choice Experiment data obtained from the grocery stores and supermarket of Tbilisi, Georgia. Results show that customers' preferences for selected pork attributes in different stores are not the same. So, targeting customers by store can be beneficial marketing tool for pork suppliers.Willingness-to-Pay, Choice Experiment, Pork Attributes, Marketing, D120, D190, M390, Q130, Q180,

The ENSO Impact on Predicting World Cocoa Prices

Cocoa beans are produced in equatorial and sub-equatorial regions of West Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. These are also the regions most affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- a climatic anomaly affecting temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world. Thus, ENSO, has a potential of affecting cocoa production and, subsequently, prices on the world market. This study investigates the benefits of using a measure of ENSO variable in world cocoa price forecasting through the application of a smooth transition autoregression (STAR) modeling framework to monthly data to examine potentially nonlinear dynamics of ENSO and cocoa prices. The results indicate that the nonlinear models appear to outperform linear models in terms of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. Furthermore, the results of this study indicate evidence of Granger causality between ENSO and cocoa prices.Cocoa Prices, El Nino Southern Oscillation, Out-of-Sample Forecasting, Smooth Transition Autoregression, Demand and Price Analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C32, Q11, Q54,

Global commodity market disruption and the fallout

The war in the breadbasket of Europe, which spawned at the heels of the once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, sent major cereal prices spiralling upward. The unprecedented sequence of events leading to and including the war has tested the resilience of global commodity markets and the craftsmanship of policymakers. While the circumstances may differ, the disruption of global commodity markets is not exactly uncharted territory, with many examples and experiences from near and distant history. By showcasing anecdotal and empirical evidence from the past, this study puts the current crisis and its consequences in perspective and offers an outlook with a specific focus on low- and middle-income countries

EFFECTS OF FIRM-SPECIFIC FACTORS ON R&D EXPENDITURES OF AGRIBUSINESS COMPANIES

The objective of this paper is to determine how the firm's infrastructure, the financial characteristics of a company (net income, sales), and the organizational structure (number of acquisitions, age of establishment of the firm) affect R&D investments in the agricultural sector. We use data for companies under the SIC codes for agricultural chemicals, and crop planning and protection. The results based on analysis of 69 observations of 12 firms revealed that firm's financial and organizational infrastructure does affect its R&D expenditures. Older and larger firms tend to spend more on R&D. During the last 17 years the R&D expenditures with respect to the sales of the company have been reduced. Finally, contrary to the expectations, previous year's profit margins are negatively correlated with the R&D over the sales ratio of the following year.Manufactured Housing; R&D, agriculture, chemicals, crop planning, crop protection, agribusiness, expenditures

Agricultural Shocks and Social Conflict in Southeast Asia

Agriculture and conflict are linked. The extent and the sign of the relationship vary by the motives of actors and the forms of conflict. We examine whether harvest-time agricultural shocks, associated with transitory shifts in employment and income, lead to changes in social conflict. Using 13 years of data from eight Southeast Asian countries, we find a seven percent increase in battles, and a 12 percent increase in violence against civilians in the croplands during harvest season compared to the rest of the year. These statistically significant effects plausibly link agricultural harvest with conflict through the rapacity mechanism. We validate this mechanism by comparing the changes in harvest-time violence during presumably good vs. bad harvest years. We also observe a three percent decrease in protests and riots during the same period that would align with the opportunity cost mechanism, but these estimates are not statistically significant. The offsetting resentment mechanism may be partly responsible for this, but we also cannot rule out the possibility of the null effect. These findings, which contribute to research on the agroclimatic and economic roots of conflict, offer valuable insights to policymakers by suggesting the temporal displacement of conflict, and specifically of violence against civilians, due to the seasonality of agricultural harvest in rice-producing regions of Southeast Asia

DIFFERENCES IN U.S. CONSUMER PREFERENCES FOR CERTIFIED PORK CHOPS WHEN FACING BRANDED VS. NON-BRANDED CHOICES

Consumers' preferences for credence attributes of a product may differ from each other, when facing the choices between branded and/or non-branded products. We test this hypothesis with conditional and mixed logit regression using data obtained by choice experiment surveys. The results suggest that, on average, consumers are willing to pay more for a certification attribute when the product is branded. Additionally, greater variation in consumer willingness-to-pay is observed in the non-branded case. This latter characteristic of the results may represent the increased uncertainty some consumers internalize concerning quality consistency when brand information is not provided. These results have interesting implications for producers, processors, retailers, and policy makers.Consumer/Household Economics,

Forecasting ENSO with a smooth transition autoregressive model

This study examines the benets of nonlinear time series modelling to improve forecast accuracy of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The paper adopts a smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) modelling framework to assess the potentially regime-dependent dynamics of sea surface temperature anomaly. The results reveal STAR-type nonlinearities in ENSO dynamics, resulting in superior out-of-sample forecast performance of STAR over the linear autoregressive models. The advantage of nonlinear models is especially apparent in the short- and intermediate-term forecasts. These results are of interest to researchers and policy makers in the elds of climate dynamics, agricultural production, and environmental management

Forecasting ENSO with a smooth transition autoregressive model

This study examines the benets of nonlinear time series modelling to improve forecast accuracy of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The paper adopts a smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) modelling framework to assess the potentially regime-dependent dynamics of sea surface temperature anomaly. The results reveal STAR-type nonlinearities in ENSO dynamics, resulting in superior out-of-sample forecast performance of STAR over the linear autoregressive models. The advantage of nonlinear models is especially apparent in the short- and intermediate-term forecasts. These results are of interest to researchers and policy makers in the elds of climate dynamics, agricultural production, and environmental management